Victoria Morton-Thurtle

Probabilistic emulation of a coupled marine system: Digital Twin development using Gaussian Process surrogates and functional data methods in the Tamar Estuary

Completion: 01 JAN 2027

Background

MPhys Theoretical Physics

PhD

Probabilistic emulation of a coupled marine system: Digital Twin development using Gaussian Process surrogates and functional data methods in the Tamar Estuary

My PhD explores how digital technologies can help us better understand and manage estuarine ecosystems. I am developing a Digital Twin of the Tamar Estuary, a virtual model that integrates hydrodynamic and biogeochemical processes to simulate how the estuary responds to weather, climate, and human activity. This platform will enable decision-makers to test “what-if” scenarios and explore sustainable management strategies. My research combines environmental modelling, statistics, and AI, specifically using Gaussian Process emulators to reproduce the behaviour of complex estuarine models, efficiently and timely.

Supervisors

Lead Supervisor
Professor Peter Challenor

Mathematics & Statistics · Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy
Co-Supervisor
Professor Daniel Williamson

Uncertainty Quantification · Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy
Co-Supervisor
Professor Ceri Lewis

Marine Biology · Faculty of Health and Life Sciences

External Partners

Dr. Ricardo Torres, Plymouth Marine Laboratory

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